Rethinking Mortality: A State-Based Dynamic Probabilistic Modelling Approach Using National-Scale Health Data

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Overview

[cite_start]This thesis argues that disease-centred mortality models—incorporating health conditions, medical procedures, and medication histories—offer significantly enhanced predictive accuracy for retiree mortality compared to conventional models relying solely on age and gender[cite: 102].

Key Findings

[cite_start]Improved Accuracy: The proposed models outperformed the Australian Life Tables (ALT) benchmark in both individual-level predictions and cohort-level forecasts[cite: 667].
[cite_start]Financial Impact: For a cohort of 100,000 retirees, the proportion expected to outlive their planning horizon falls from 9.9% (ALT) to 6.7% with this model[cite: 73].
[cite_start]National Policy: Implementing these models could decrease Age Pension expenditure by approximately $83.2 million per year by improving retirement drawdown strategies[cite: 74].

Full Thesis

The full thesis PDF is embedded below for convenient reading.

Full thesis (PDF): Download the thesis (PDF)

PENDING: Conference paper for the All-Actuaries summit

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

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Rethinking Mortality: A State-Based Dynamic Probabilistic Modelling Approach Using National-Scale Health Data

Overview

Key Findings

Full Thesis

PENDING: Conference paper for the All-Actuaries summit